Ouch. A humdinger from EJ Dionne. Read the whole thing. But, a money shot:
But conservatism is a diverse movement with many philosophical threads and tensions. Successful conservative politicians such as Ronald Reagan (and George W. Bush in his first term) kept the peace among economic, social and big business conservatives while moderating the movement's public rhetoric. In opposition, conservatives often manage to bury their differences. But conservatism has flown apart when its components have come into conflict or when extreme rhetoric has come to the fore.
Thus has Obama brought back to life a venerable if disturbing style of conservative thinking. In the short run, the new movement's energy threatens him. In the long run, its extremism may be his salvation.
Meanwhile, put that in context with something like this, by way of Say Anything:
That last number is the one that has to sting for Obama. If the independents have abandoned him, he’s left with only the hardcore partisans and a sliver of the middle.
If the current trend is maintained (or, lets face it - not improved) Barry will - in theory - be ripe for the picking. Make no mistake: the GOP will fill up the clown car of candidates again. But do they have a candidate who can both capitalize on the available centrist/middle road voters while simultaneously pacifying the very vocal and very angry teabag crowd.